UK car output up 38.6% in September, EV targets risk jobs

UK car output climbed 38.6% in September 2026, with 70,831 cars produced - the strongest September since 2023 - driven by recovery from the 2025 JLR cyberattack and rising export demand. The SMMT warns that current electric‑vehicle targets could jeopardise factory jobs and profitability.

Key takeaways

• September 2026 saw 70,831 cars built, up 38.6% year‑on‑year.
• Electrified models made up 42.3% of output and 70.1% of exports.
• Overall vehicle production, including commercial units, rose 36.3% to 74,031.
• SMMT warns EV targets exceed demand, putting jobs at risk.
• Export shares to the EU, US and China grew sharply year‑on‑year.

Production surge and underlying factors

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported that 70,831 cars left UK factories in September 2026, a 38.6% increase on September 2025. The rebound follows the 2025 cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, which forced a production halt and left a weak baseline for comparison.

Including commercial vehicles, total output reached 74,031 units, up 36.3% year‑on‑year. The surge represents the strongest monthly growth since August 2022 and reflects a combination of restored capacity and renewed overseas demand.

Electrified vehicle share and export performance

Battery‑electric, plug‑in hybrid and hybrid models rose 22.5%, making up 42.3% of all cars built in September and 70.1% of vehicles exported. The shift helped lift overall production and aligns with manufacturers’ investment of over £14 billion in EV capacity since 2020.

Export destinations broadened, with 76.7% of UK‑built cars shipped abroad. The EU remained the top market at 57.5% of shipments, while the United States share grew to 16.8% after a 234.8% year‑on‑year increase, and China accounted for 4.4% following a 357.7% jump.

Industry outlook and policy pressures

Despite the September surge, the first nine months of 2026 show a 3% decline in total vehicle output versus the same period in 2025, and commercial‑vehicle production is down 46.7% year‑to‑date. Forecasts now put light‑vehicle production at 731,000 units for the full year, a 2.3% fall on 2025.

The SMMT cautions that the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate and looming EU rules of origin could erode profitability and delay further investment. It calls for a substantial revision of the ZEV targets, arguing that current incentives exceed genuine consumer demand and risk jobs in British factories.

What this means for dealers

Dealers should monitor the pace of EV model introductions and the potential slowdown in new vehicle allocations if manufacturers redirect capital away from production. A revision of the ZEV mandate could stabilise pricing and improve margins, while any tariff exposure from EU rules may affect the cost of imported components and finished EVs.

Frequently asked questions

What does the September production increase indicate for dealer stock levels?

The 38.6% rise suggests a larger supply of new‑fleet vehicles entering the market, giving dealers more options for trade‑ins and private sales. However, if manufacturers slow new EV launches in response to policy pressure, the influx could taper, meaning stock levels may stabilise rather than continue expanding.

How might changes to the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate affect dealer pricing and margins?

A softer ZEV mandate could reduce the amount of government‑backed subsidies manufacturers rely on, potentially leading to higher wholesale prices for dealers. Conversely, a revised target that matches real demand may improve profit margins by lowering the cost of compliance and allowing more stable pricing for both EV and conventional models.